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Nicolas Rost - Trapped in a Vicious Circle

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Nicolas Rost

Trapped in a Vicious Circle

Series: Demokratie, Sicherheit, Frieden

Volume 206 2012

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Repression as a Harbinger of Civil War S. 65-86

„… , and, on the other hand, a clear early warning sign of wars to come. Introduction Civil wars rarely …” „… escalatory process and an early warning sign of civil war onset. In this study, I do not argue that …” „… and state weakness coexist are especially civil war-prone, as weak governments trying to repress …”

A Global Risk Assessment Model for Civil Wars (with Gerald Schneider and Johannes Kleibl) S. 87-109

„… Part II: Early Warning – Assessing the Risk of Repression and Civil Wars to Come 89 In this …” „… assessment, early warning and civil war, and laying out theoretical expectations about factors that are …” „… Warning and Risk Assessment, Civil War and Human Rights Violations Early warning and risk assessment …”

Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace (with Mehmet Gurses and Patrick McLeod) S. 189-213

„… 189 Chapter 9: Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace with Mehmet Gurses and …” „… mediation attempts during civil war on the duration of peace once the war has ended. Several aspects of the …” „… distinct impact on the duration of peace after a civil war. In empirical tests on civil wars from 1945 to …”

Taking Matters into Their Own Hands: An Analysis of the Determinants of State-Conducted Peacekeeping in Civil Wars (with J. Michael Greig) S. 163-189

„… theoretical framework empirically by pairing civil war-countries with potential providers of peacekeeping …” „… peacekeepers to civil wars with multiple warring factions. Increasing the number of factions in a civil war …” „… dissertation, I illustrated how threats to human security accumulate in civil wars, and examined several links …”

Vicious Circles S. 11-24

„… independent in 1962. One year later, a civil war broke out between Tutsi rebels based in Burundi and the …” „… autocracy, political instability, civil war, repression and mass killings, rarely come alone. Rather, they …” „… to another: Repression is a strong sign of an increased risk of civil war; civil wars are sometimes …”

Links between Threats to Human Security S. 25-37

„… country-years with data available between 1976 and 2004 (793 out of 4,264), and war-years (civil war only) for 6 …” „… Part I: Analysis – How Authoritarianism, Repression and Civil War Are Interlinked 27 …” „… the process that leads to civil war, as well as the situation in post-war environments. These …”

References S. 219-242

„… . «Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.» Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the …” „… . Acemoglu, Daron, Davide Ticchi, and Andrea Vindigni. 2011. «Persistence of Civil Wars.» Journal of the …” „… , Jean-Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2002. «Violence Against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror?» Journal …”

Conclusion S. 213-218

„… process leading to civil war and (2) that repression is a clear early warning sign of an increased risk of …” „… assessment and early warning of internal conflict and civil war has intensified in recent years (e.g …” „… strongest risk factors and early warning signs of future civil war. This can help policymakers to identify …”

Determinants of Regime Type in Newly Independent States (with John A. Booth) S. 37-65

„… thresholds. 59 count for a large part of democratic civil war-years (49 of 132 or 37%). In Myanmar and …” „… Variables on Autocracy/ Democracy over Time -8-6-4-20246Change in Polity2Cold War endsCivil WarGDP per …” „… , a clear early warning sign of wars to come. Introduction Civil wars rarely erupt. Rather, they …”

Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis S. 2-10

„… Harbinger of Civil War 65 Part II: Early Warning – Assessing The Risk of Repression and Civil Wars o Come …” „… Shikano Prof. Dr. Thomas ElbertBUT_Rost_7744-3.indd 4 13.07.12 08:275 Summary Civil war, repression …” „… circles: Repression is a strong sign of an increased risk of civil war; civil wars are sometimes used as …”

Will it Happen Again? On the Possibility of Forecasting the Risk of Genocide S. 131-162

„… people killed in civil wars between 1945 and 1999 according to Fearon and Laitin 2003a).67 Military …” „… sustained policies by governing elites or their agents – or, in the case of civil war, either of the …” „… research (Harff 2003), I do not find civil war or adverse regime change to be a necessary condition for …”

Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human Rights Analysis (with Steven C. Poe and Sabine Carey) S. 109-131

„… civil wars have been active and at least somewhat successful in building forecasting systems. Why …” „… well as certain state behaviors such as past repression and involvement in international and civil war …” „… , Gelleny, and Sacko 2001). Similarly, governments that are fighting in international or civil wars have …”

doi.org/10.5771/9783845242453