29
OECD Europe
OECD America
France
Italy
Belgium
United Kingdom
Ireland
Denmark
Spain
Greece
United States
Mexico
Canada
OECD Total
European Union (15)
Germany
Portugal
Korea
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
-2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2
INCREASE 1965-2003
(percentage points)
Revenues from property taxes /
GDP (%) (2003)
TAXES ON PROPERTY
Data source: OECD Revenue Statistics (2006).
Figure 8: Development of the property tax revenues over GDP ratio 1965-2003
3.3 Important trends in the development of the German tax system
Since 1950 three trends have been especially important for the development of the
German tax system.
First, the importance of taxes for total public revenues (excluding social security)
has strongly increased. Public revenues include e.g. fees for publicly provided services, privatization receipts or the surplus of the Bundesbank, the German Central
Bank.
The upper part of Figure 9 shows that tax revenues grew faster than total revenues
till the end of the 1960s and that total revenues over GDP showed a stronger downward trend than tax revenues since the early 1980s.26 Based on these two developments the share of tax revenues over total revenues increased strongly from around
26 The figure is based on Bundesbank data (on public revenues) and tax statistics of the Federal
Statistical Office.
30
68.7% in 1950 to 88.2% in 2004 while the importance of other revenues decreased
respectively (see lower part of Figure 9).27
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Total public revenues
(excl. social security)/
GDP
Tax revenues/GDP
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Tax revenues/total
public revenues
(excl. social security)
IMPORTANCE OF TAX REVENUES - GERMANY 1950-2004
Data source:Bundesbank/Federal Statistical Office.
Revenues/GDP
Tax Revenues/
Total Revenues
Figure 9: Importance of tax revenues for public revenues
Second, the number of taxes has decreased substantially since the early 1950s.
Compared to 1952 – when the tax system relied on 47 different taxes28 – the number
of taxes which yield positive revenues decreased strongly to 39 in 2006 (see Figure
10). A closer look at newly introduced and abolished taxes shows that since 1950 15
taxes29 have been abolished while only seven taxes30 have been newly introduced
27 One important exception is the year 2000, when extraordinarily high privatization receipts of
around €50bn (from auctioning the UMTS telecommunication licenses) made public revenues
grew far stronger than tax revenues.
28 We calculated the number of taxes and the abolishment and introduction of taxes based on
revenue statistics from the Federal Statistical Office and from tax laws. We integrated only
taxes which yield positive revenues and are separately displayed in national tax revenue statistics. Wage and income taxes (including the interest withholding tax) are counted as one tax.
Customs are not integrated.
29 Abolished taxes (by first year of no revenues): tax on commercial papers (1965), tax on
sweetener (1966), transportation tax (1971), supplementary surcharge (1977), payroll tax
(1980), tax on acetic acid (1981), tax on playing cards (1981), tax on matches (1981), match
31
(see the lower part of Figure 10). Abolishment of taxes took place especially in the
early 1980s and the 1990s and was strongly affected by the harmonization of consumption taxes within in the EU. New taxes were introduced especially after reunification in 1990 (five out of seven new taxes). However, most newly introduced as
well as the abolished taxes have been only of minor importance for tax revenues. Of
the abolished taxes the net wealth tax was important in revenues terms, while in
newly introduced taxes the solidarity surcharge (in effect since 1991) and the tax on
electricity (in effect since 1999) yield substantial revenues.
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Number of taxes
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Newly introcuced
taxes
Abolished taxes
NUMBER OF TAXES - GERMANY 1950-2004
Source: Based on tax laws.
Absolute
Absolute
Figure 10: Development of the number of taxes
The third important trend has been a strong increase in the concentration of the tax
mix which is usually measured by the Herfindahl index31. The Herfindahl index for
the revenue structure of the German tax system increased from 0.13 in 1951 to 0.22
in 2004 (if all components of the wage and income tax are counted as one tax) or
monopoly tax (1983), bills of exchange tax (1992), excises on sugar, tea and illuminants
(1993), net wealth tax (1997), and local business capital tax (1998).
30 Newly introduced taxes (by first year of positive revenues): supplementary surcharge (1968),
special input duties (1987), solidarity surcharge (1991), intermediate goods tax (1994), second home and packaging tax (1997), electricity tax (1999).
31 See e.g. Heyndels/Smolders (1994 and 1995), Wagner (1976) or Breeden/Hunter (1985).
32
from 0.11 to 0.19 (if the different components of the wage and income tax are
treated separately) (see the upper part of Figure 11).
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Smallest 15 taxes
Smallest 10 taxes
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Income and Wage
Tax and VAT
Income and Wage
Tax
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Herfindahl Index; tax
revenues (wage and income
tax as one tax)
Herfindahl Index; tax
revenues (all components of
wage and income tax
seperated)
TAX MIX CONCENTRATION - GERMANY 1950-2004
Data source: Federal Statistical Office (2007).
Index
Revenues/Total
tax revenues
Revenues/Total
tax revenues
Figure 11: Development of the tax mix concentration
A closer look at the development of the revenue shares of different taxes shows that
the increasing concentration of the tax mix resulted from the largest two taxes (wage
and income tax and VAT in the middle graph of Figure 11). The share of the two
most important taxes increased strongly while concentration at the lower bound has
changed only marginally (see the development of the smallest 10 and the smallest 15
taxes in the lower graph of Figure 11).
4 The relationship of social security contributions and taxation
Social security contributions are integrated in many analyses of taxation and tax
policy. Therefore, we shortly review the development of the social security system.
We discuss its relation to taxation and tax policy and the arguments for and against
an integration of social security contributions in our analysis of the political economy of taxation.
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References
Zusammenfassung
Was bestimmt die Steuerpolitik? Welche Ziele verfolgen die Bundesregierungen bei Steuerreformen? Haben Steuererhöhungen und Steuersenkungen einen Einfluss auf die Wahlergebnisse? Auf der Basis eines neuen Datensatzes zu den fiskalischen Effekten von Steuerreformen im Zeitraum von 1964 bis 2004 zeigt das Werk Muster der Steuerpolitik auf und testet zentrale ökonomische Hypothesen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass normative ökonomische Ansätze kaum einen Erklärungsbeitrag für die zu beobachtende Steuerpolitik leisten können.
Ausgehend von wichtigen polit-ökonomischen Theorien zeigt der Autor, dass die Mehrheitskonstellationen im Bundesrat einen wichtigen Einfluss auf die Steuerpolitik haben, allerdings genau umgekehrt wie von der Blockade-Hypothese behauptet: Steuerreformen sind gemessen an ihren Fiskaleffekten bei gegenläufigen Mehrheiten in Bundestag und Bundesrat häufiger und umfangreicher. Des Weiteren gibt es keine Hinweise darauf, dass die parteipolitische Zusammensetzung der Bundesregierung einen wichtigen Einfluss auf Steuerreformen hat. Wahltaktische Terminierungen von Steuerreformen spielen aber sehr wohl eine wichtige Rolle. Eine Auswertung des Zusammenhangs von Steuerreformen und Wahlergebnissen zeigt allerdings, dass die Versuche der Bundesregierungen, ihre Wiederwahlwahrscheinlichkeit durch Steuersenkungen kurz vor der Wahl zu erhöhen, wenig erfolgreich sind: Nicht nur die Jahre unmittelbar vor den Wahlterminen, sondern die Steuerpolitik in der gesamten Legislaturperiode hat einen Einfluss auf die Bundestagswahlergebnisse der regierenden Parteien.