Content

Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis in:

Hans Rattinger, Harald Schoen, Fabian Endres, Jana Pötzschke, Sebastian Jungkunz, Matthias Mader

Old Friends in Troubled Waters, page 1 - 14

Policy Principles, Elites, and U.S.-German Relations at the Citizen Level After the Cold War

1. Edition 2016, ISBN print: 978-3-8487-2756-8, ISBN online: 978-3-8452-7228-3, https://doi.org/10.5771/9783845272283-1

Series: Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung, vol. 30

Bibliographic information
Nomos Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung 30 Old Friends in Troubled Waters Policy Principles, Elites, and U.S.-German Relations at the Citizen Level After the Cold War Rattinger | Schoen | Endres | Jungkunz | Mader | Pötzschke The series „Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung“ is edited by Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger, University of Mannheim Prof. Dr. Oscar W. Gabriel, University of Stuttgart Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, University of Mannheim Volume 30 The series „Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung“ edited by Prof. Dr. Hans Rattinger, University of Mannheim Prof. Dr. Oscar W. Gabriel, University of Stuttgart Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, University of Mannheim Volume 27 BUT_Rattinger_2756-8.indd 2 18.05.16 08:39 2.Auflage Policy Principles, Elites, and U.S.-German Relations at the Citizen Level After the Cold War Old Friends in Troubled Waters Nomos Hans Rattinger | Harald Schoen | Fabian Endres | Sebastian Jungkunz | Matthias Mader | Jana Pötzschke BUT_Rattinger_2756-8.indd 3 18.05.16 08:39 Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available on the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de ISBN 978-3-8487-2756-8 (Print) 978-3-8452-7228-3 (ePDF) British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-3-8487-2756-8 (Print) 978-3-8452-7228-3 (ePDF) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rattinger, Hans/Schoen, Harald/Endres, Fabian/Jungkunz, Sebastian/ Mader, Matthias/Pötzschke, Jana Old Friends in Troubled Waters Policy Principles, Elites, and U.S.-German Relations at the Citizen Level After the Cold War Hans Rattinger/Harald Schoen/Fabian Endres/Sebastian Jungkunz/ Matthias Mader/Jana Pötzschke 294 p. Includes bibliographic references. ISBN 978-3-8487-2756-8 (Print) 978-3-8452-7228-3 (ePDF) 1. Auflage 2016 © Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden 2016. Printed in Germany. Alle Rechte, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, der fotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, vorbehalten. Gedruckt auf alterungsbeständigem Papier. This work is subject to copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. Under § 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use a fee is payable to “Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort”, Munich. No responsibility for loss caused to any individual or organization acting on or refraining from action as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by Nomos or the authors. BUT_Rattinger_2756-8.indd 4 18.05.16 08:39 Foreword This book is one of the outcomes of a research project on “Attitudes on Foreign and Security Policy in the U.S. and Germany: A Comparison at the Mass and Elite Level” funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and directed by the first two authors at their respective universities (Bamberg and Mannheim) from 2010 to 2015. For both of them this project continued strong professional interest in and extensive publication activities about the general topic of public attitudes on foreign policy and national security matters. For the first author this dates way back to the aftermath of the NATO dual-track decision of 1979, and for the second author to the early years of this millennium. Apart from a series of scholarly articles this book is the main scientific product of this project. When the second author also moved to Mannheim in 2014 the project was united there under one roof. The division of labor between the first and second author and their assistants and collaborators was largely defined by the Atlantic, with the former being in charge of the collection and analyses of U.S. data and the latter one for those for Germany. The remaining four authors for more or less extended periods of time were the primary project researchers, Sebastian Jungkunz and Matthias Mader with the second, and Fabian Endres and Jana Pötzschke with the first author. Apart from the authors a number of institutions and individuals have contributed to the completion of this study. Our gratitude goes, first of all, to the DFG and its various representatives we had the pleasure of working with for generous support (including the publication of this volume) and efficient and pleasant cooperation. The Mannheim Center for European Social Research has competently as always hosted the project at our university. And, finally, Philipp Runge and Corina Wagner as research associates as well as a large number of student research assistants have worked within the project over the years: Sören Alvermann, Vivienne Brando, 5 Luisa Fabing, Torben Festerling, Aitana Gräbs, Theron Delano Hall, Heiner Heiland, Hannes Jarisch, Johannes Kiefl, Luca Meister, Anna Meyer, Daniel Nürnberger, Helga Nützel, Louisa Plasberg, Julia Semmelbeck, Emma Steen, Anne-Christin Sutterer, Alena Unverdorben, and Natalia Yugay. They all deserve our thanks. Mannheim, January 2016 Hans Rattinger Harald Schoen Fabian Endres Sebastian Jungkunz Matthias Mader Jana Pötzschke Foreword 6 Table of contents List of figures 9 List of tables 11 List of abbreviations 15 Introduction1 17 U.S.-German relations in the post-Cold War era from a citizen perspective 1.1 17 Core postures, parties, and U.S.-German relations: A model and some expectations 1.2 20 Data and outline of the book1.3 38 Change and stability of U.S. and German foreign and security policy attitudes 2 42 Introduction2.1 42 Foreign policy postures2.2 44 Introduction2.2.1 44 Internationalism2.2.2 45 Militarism2.2.3 48 Multilateralism2.2.4 54 Perceptions of the international system2.3 59 Introduction2.3.1 59 Foreign policy problems facing the country2.3.2 60 International threat perceptions2.3.3 64 Attitudes toward foreign countries, their leaders, and transatlantic relations 2.3.4 71 Policies2.4 79 Introduction2.4.1 79 Providing collective security: NATO, EU, or both?2.4.2 80 War and military interventions2.4.3 90 7 International terrorism2.4.4 109 Nuclear proliferation2.4.5 113 Summary and implications2.5 119 Policy postures and elite politics as determinants of public opinion 3 124 Introduction3.1 124 Data, measurement, and methods3.2 131 Explaining foreign and security policy attitudes3.3 138 The Kosovo War3.3.1 138 International terrorism3.3.2 147 The Afghanistan War3.3.3 154 The Iraq War3.3.4 163 The Iranian nuclear program3.3.5 177 NATO3.3.6 183 Transatlantic relations3.3.7 199 Summary and implications3.4 222 Conclusion4 226 References 239 Appendix A: Data sets 255 Appendix B1: Question wording for figures 259 Appendix B2: Question wording for tables 269 Appendix B3: Question wording for results reported in the text only 285 Table of contents 8 List of figures Figure 1: Attitudes toward international involvement, 1982-2010 46 Figure 2: Attitudes toward the use of force, 2003-2010 49 Figure 3: Attitudes toward conscription in Germany, 1989-2010 51 Figure 4: Attitudes toward decreasing defense spending, 1981-2010 52 Figure 5: Desirability of United States and European Union world leadership, 2002-2010 76 Figure 6: Attitudes toward NATO membership, 1981-2010 81 Figure 7: Public support for the military mission in Somalia, 1993 96 Figure 8: Determinants of support for a military intervention in Kosovo, 1998-1999 140 Figure 9: Determinants of support for the use of troops to maintain peace in the post-conflict Balkans, 2007 144 Figure 10: Determinants of approval of air strikes against terrorist camps, 2002 151 Figure 11: Determinants of approval of own troops in Afghanistan, 2004 156 Figure 12: Determinants of approval of increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan, 2009 158 Figure 13: Determinants of approval of troops for reconstruction in Afghanistan, 2007 161 Figure 14: Determinants of public support for an invasion of Iraq, 2002 166 Figure 15: Determinants of public beliefs the war in Iraq was worth it, 2003-2004 170 Figure 16: Determinants of beliefs that the Iraq War increased the threat of terrorism, 2004 173 Figure 17: Determinants of attitudes toward attacking Iran, 2003 179 Figure 18: Determinants of the perception of common values between Europe and the United States, 2004 201 Figure 19: Determinants of the perception of common values between Europe and the United States, 2009 204 9 Figure 20: Influence of militarism on support for a more independent European foreign policy in Germany, 2004-2010 207 Figure 21: Influence of partisan affiliation on support for a more independent European foreign policy in Germany, 2004-2010 209 Figure 22: Influence of militarist orientations on support for U.S. leadership in the world in Germany, 2002-2010 212 Figure 23: Determinants of attitudes toward EU economic vs. military power, 2005 218 Figure 24: Determinants of attitudes toward a common European army, 2005 219 List of figures 10 List of tables Table 1: Attitudes toward multilateralism, 2002-2007 55 Table 2: Biggest foreign policy problems facing Germany, 1988-2003 61 Table 3: Biggest foreign policy problems facing the U.S., 1982-2002 63 Table 4: Perceived threats to the vital interests of the U.S., 1990-2010 65 Table 5: Perceived threats to the vital interests of the European Union in Germany, 2002-2006 66 Table 6: Perceived personal threats in the United States, 2005-2008 68 Table 7: Perceived personal threats in Germany, 1997-2005 69 Table 8: Perceived personal threats in Germany, 2006-2010 70 Table 9: Feelings toward foreign countries in the United States, 1982-2010 72 Table 10: Feelings toward foreign countries in Germany, 1992-2009 74 Table 11: Attitudes toward the transatlantic partnership in security, 2004-2010 77 Table 12: Attitudes toward NATO membership in Germany, 1981-2007 83 Table 13: Attitudes toward NATO membership in the U.S., 1982-2010 84 Table 14: Perceived necessity of NATO membership for security, 2002-2010 85 Table 15: Attitudes toward superpower status of the European Union, 2002-2005 88 Table 16: Attitudes toward the military role of the European Union, 2003-2005 89 Table 17: Support for the use of force against Iraq in Germany, 1991 94 Table 18: Support for troop deployment to Kosovo, 1998-2007 100 Table 19: Support for troop deployment to Afghanistan, 2001-2004 101 11 Table 20: Support for different military operations in Afghanistan, 2007-2008 103 Table 21: Attitudes toward the number of troops in Afghanistan, 2009-2010 104 Table 22: Attitudes toward an attack on Iraq in the U.S., 2003-2004 106 Table 23: Attitudes toward an attack on Iraq in Germany, 2003-2004 106 Table 24: Support for counterterrorism measures, 1998-2010 110 Table 25: Preference for military action vs. sanctions if a country is threatening a neighbor with nuclear weapons, 2003 115 Table 26: Support for military action if North Korea or Iran acquired nuclear weapons, 2003 117 Table 27: Attitudes toward strategies to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, 2006-2010 118 Table 28: Foreign policy orientations as measured in the Transatlantic Trends Surveys, 2002-2010 132 Table 29: Predicted probabilities of attitudes toward military action in Kosovo, 1998-1999 and 2007 141 Table 30: Predicted probabilities of attitudes toward the war in Iraq, 2002-2004 168 Table 31: Determinants of support for NATO membership in the U.S., 1982-2010 185 Table 32: Predicted probabilities of NATO support by foreign policy orientations in the U.S., 1982-2010 186 Table 33: Determinants of support for NATO membership in Germany, 1989-2000 191 Table 34: Support for NATO membership by party affiliation and militarist orientations in Germany, 1989-2000 193 Table 35: Determinants of perceived necessity of NATO membership in Germany, 2004-2010 194 Table 36: Determinants of perceived necessity of NATO membership in the U.S., 2004-2010 195 Table 37: Predicted probabilities of perceptions of NATO still being essential by foreign policy orientations, 2004-2010 196 Table 38: Predicted probabilities of perceptions of NATO still being essential by party affiliation, 2004-2010 197 List of tables 12 Table 39: Determinants of attitudes toward independence in transatlantic relations, 2004-2010 205 Table 40: Determinants of attitudes toward U.S. leadership in the world in Germany, 2002-2010 210 Table 41: Determinants of attitudes toward EU leadership in the world in the United States, 2002-2010 215 Table 42: Determinants of attitudes toward Europe becoming a superpower, 2002-2005 216 Table A1: Surveys of the American public 255 Table A2: Surveys of the German public 256 Table A3: Comparative surveys of the American and German publics 258 List of tables 13

Chapter Preview

References

Abstract

At the beginning of the 21st century, German-American relations resemble a roller coaster ride: The terror attacks of 9/11 led to a wave of solidarity among German citizens. While America’s reputation dwindled due to the war in Iraq, the election of Barack Obama led to waves of enthusiasm.

Against the backdrop of Germany’s new role in the world, this book analyzes American and German citizens’ responses to changes in the international system in the post-Cold War era and their repercussions on the transatlantic relationship at citizen level. The evidence reveals transatlantic disagreement over core foreign policy postures, particularly the use of military force. Whether such cultural differences can seriously undermine transatlantic relations is conditional upon elite behavior.

Zusammenfassung

Die Entwicklung der deutsch-amerikanischen Beziehungen gleicht zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts einer Achterbahnfahrt. Die Anschläge in den USA vom 11. September lösten eine Welle der Solidarität in Deutschland aus. Doch das Ansehen der Vereinigten Staaten litt schon bald beträchtlich unter dem Irakkrieg, während die Wahl Barack Obamas zu Begeisterungsstürmen führte.

Vor dem Hintergrund der neuen Rolle Deutschlands in der Welt analysiert dieses Buch, wie Bürgerinnen und Bürger in beiden Ländern auf Veränderungen im internationalen System seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges reagierten und welche Folgen sich für die öffentliche Zustimmung zur transatlantischen Kooperation ergeben. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die Grundüberzeugungen von Deutschen und Amerikanern hinsichtlich der Legitimität von militärischer Gewalt in den internationalen Beziehungen fundamental unterscheiden. Ob sich solche Differenzen aber zu einer echten Krise auswachsen, hängt entscheidend vom Verhalten der politischen Eliten ab.