Haben die Demoskopen die FDP aus dem Bundestag vertrieben? Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie

Thorsten Faas; Sascha Huber

doi:10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-746

Contents
- Chapter Expand | CollapseAuthorsPage
- I–IV Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis I–IV
- 673–674 EDITORIAL 673–674
- 675–829 DOKUMENTATION UND ANALYSEN 675–829
  - 675–691 Wissenschaftliche Wahlprognosen – Alternative oder Ergänzung zu Umfragen? Arndt Leininger Arndt Leininger 675–691
  - 692–707 Zur Wahrnehmung und Glaubwürdigkeit von Umfragen aus Sicht der Bürger: Ein Test zweier notwendiger Bedingungen für Umfrageeffekte Thorsten Faas Thorsten Faas 692–707
  - 708–729 Wahlumfragen und der Willensbildungsprozess der Wähler im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2013 Hanna Hoffmann Hanna Hoffmann 708–729
  - 730–745 Alles eine Frage der Umfragen? Ursachen von Koalitionserwartungen im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013 Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann Thomas Zerback, Carsten Reinemann 730–745
  - 746–759 Haben die Demoskopen die FDP aus dem Bundestag vertrieben? Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber Thorsten Faas, Sascha Huber 746–759
  - 760–777 Staatliche Regulierung und die Freiheit der Umfrageforschung weltweit Thomas, Petersen Thomas, Petersen 760–777
  - 778–794 Auf dem Wege zur europäischen Gewaltenverschränkung: der Deutsche Bundestag während der Eurozonenkrise Timm Beichelt Timm Beichelt 778–794
  - 795–809 Institutionelle Regeln oder politische Kultur? Faktoren der parlamentarischen Mitgliederfluktuation in der Schweiz Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter Antoinette Feh Widmer, Adrian Vatter 795–809
  - 810–819 Zum Rederecht von Liedermachern – Durfte Wolf Biermann im Deutschen Bundestag reden, obwohl er singen sollte? Christoph Smets Christoph Smets 810–819
  - 820–829 Die zeitliche Begrenzung des Untersuchungsausschusses Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex Björn-Christian Kleih und, Christine Rex 820–829
- 830–886 AUFSÄTZE 830–886
  - 830–851 Halbzeit: Die Entwicklung des Parteiensystems nach der Bundestagswahl 2013 Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 830–851
  - 852–873 Das Management der dritten Großen Koalition in Deutschland 2013 bis 2015: unangefochtene Dominanz der drei Parteivorsitzenden Patrick Horst Patrick Horst 852–873
  - 874–886 Anmerkungen zur Koalitionsdemokratie und ein Plädoyer für die Beendigung des Lagerdenkens Ingo von Münch Ingo von Münch 874–886
- 887–906 REZENSIONEN 887–906
- 907–916 MITTEILUNG 907–916
  - 907–910 Populismus in Europa – Konsequenzen für Parteien und Parlamente. Eine Veranstaltung der DVParl am 29. Juni 2015 in Berlin Philipp Kahlert Philipp Kahlert 907–910
  - 911–916 ABSTRACTS . 911–916
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ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , page 746 - 759

Haben die Demoskopen die FDP aus dem Bundestag vertrieben? Ergebnisse einer experimentellen Studie

Autoren

Thorsten Faas Sascha Huber

DOI
- doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2015-4-746
- ISSN: 0340-1758
- ISSN online: 0340-1758
Zusammenfassung

Pre-election polls in the run up to the 2013 general election saw the liberal party FDP consistently over five percent. At the end of election night, however, the party failed to surpass the five-percent electoral threshold and consequently – for the first time ever – failed to enter the German parliament. In order to find out whether the pollsters had an impact on the FDP’s failure two hypotheses are derived from the extant literature: According to the wasted-vote hypothesis, poll figures below five percent would be harmful for the Liberals as these numbers signal that a vote for this party might be wasted. The diametrically opposed coalition-insurance hypothesis postulates that values below five percent would be beneficial for the FDP because such figures send a signal to supporters of the Christian Democrats that they have to support their desired coalition partner. These conflicting hypotheses are tested by means of an experimental study and clear evidence is found for the validity of the second hypothesis. Given the actual poll numbers in the run up to the 2013 federal election, this might very well mean that these poll figures may have sent a false signal to the voters, namely that lending votes in favor of the FDP was not necessary. Had the pollsters, however, published numbers lower than five percent for the Liberals, their party’s entry into the Bundestag would have been more likely. [ZParl, vol. 46
(2015), no. 4, pp. 746 – 759]

Abstract

Pre-election polls in the run up to the 2013 general election saw the liberal party FDP consistently over five percent. At the end of election night, however, the party failed to surpass the five-percent electoral threshold and consequently – for the first time ever – failed to enter the German parliament. In order to find out whether the pollsters had an impact on the FDP’s failure two hypotheses are derived from the extant literature: According to the wasted-vote hypothesis, poll figures below five percent would be harmful for the Liberals as these numbers signal that a vote for this party might be wasted. The diametrically opposed coalition-insurance hypothesis postulates that values below five percent would be beneficial for the FDP because such figures send a signal to supporters of the Christian Democrats that they have to support their desired coalition partner. These conflicting hypotheses are tested by means of an experimental study and clear evidence is found for the validity of the second hypothesis. Given the actual poll numbers in the run up to the 2013 federal election, this might very well mean that these poll figures may have sent a false signal to the voters, namely that lending votes in favor of the FDP was not necessary. Had the pollsters, however, published numbers lower than five percent for the Liberals, their party’s entry into the Bundestag would have been more likely. [ZParl, vol. 46
(2015), no. 4, pp. 746 – 759]
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