The EU has responded to Moscow’s use of energy as a geopolitical force by creating a strategic priority to diversify its energy supply, particularly natural gas. The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) within the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is part of this effort, and this article examines the extent to which SGC and TANAP might satisfy this goal. Additionally, it analyses how the SGC might eventually change the energy power dynamics of Russia vis-à-vis the EU, with a particular note on eastern European vulnerability. Due to continued and worsening instability in Iraq, and the previous negotiations of Turkmenistan and China regarding their own gas deal, it is highly probable that there will not be enough supply that will pass through TANAP and SGC to change the Russian-EU energy equation. Additionally, Russia is unlikely to lose significant power from its energy supplier status, particularly vis-àvis eastern Europe, as a result of the convoluted route through which the limited supply of SGC gas that could be destined for eastern Europe must pass.
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