Wann ist „sicher“ sicher? Kriterien zur Operationalisierung sicherer Wahlkreise im Vergleich

Anastasia Pyschny; Daniel Hellmann

doi:10.5771/0340-1758-2017-2-350

Contents
- Chapter Expand | CollapseAuthorsPage
- I–IV Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis I–IV
- 247–248 EDITORIAL Suzanne S. Schüttemeyer Suzanne S. Schüttemeyer 247–248
- 249–396 DOKUMENTATION UND ANALYSEN 249–396
  - 249–270 „Return to Unified Government“: Zur Zusammensetzung des US-Kongresses nach den Wahlen vom 8 . November 2016 Michael Kolkmann Michael Kolkmann 249–270
  - 271–286 Zeiten des Aufruhrs: Die Vorwahlen zur US-Präsidentschaftswahl 2016 und der Vormarsch der Partei-Außenseiter Torben Lütjen Torben Lütjen 271–286
  - 287–310 Die US-Präsidentschaftswahl vom 8 . November 2016: Trumps Triumph Bernhard Kornelius Bernhard Kornelius 287–310
  - 311–328 Drittbewerber bei US-Präsidentschaftswahlen: chancenlos, aber wahlentscheidend? Manuel Franz, Florian Gawehns Manuel Franz, Florian Gawehns 311–328
  - 329–349 100 Tage Donald J. Trump. Eine frühe Bewertung einer (außer)gewöhnlichen Präsidentschaft Florian Böller, Markus B. Siewert Florian Böller, Markus B. Siewert 329–349
  - 350–369 Wann ist „sicher“ sicher? Kriterien zur Operationalisierung sicherer Wahlkreise im Vergleich Anastasia Pyschny, Daniel Hellmann Anastasia Pyschny, Daniel Hellmann 350–369
  - 370–396 Parteimitgliedschaften im Jahre 2016 Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 370–396
- 397–439 AUFSÄTZE 397–439
  - 397–422 Bilanz der Präsidentschaft Barack Obamas: kein transformativer, aber ein effektiver und mutiger Leader Patrick Horst Patrick Horst 397–422
  - 423–439 The Party Is Over: Zum Zustand der Parteien und des politischen Systems in den USA Josef Braml Josef Braml 423–439
- 440–460 REZENSIONEN 440–460
- 461–465 MITTEILUNGEN 461–465
- 466–470 ABSTRACTS 466–470
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ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , page 350 - 369

Wann ist „sicher“ sicher? Kriterien zur Operationalisierung sicherer Wahlkreise im Vergleich

Autoren

Anastasia Pyschny Daniel Hellmann

DOI
- doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2017-2-350
- ISSN: 0340-1758
- ISSN online: 0340-1758
Zusammenfassung

Under which conditions can a constituency be counted as safe? This question is especially important for parties and candidates, yet has found different answers among scholars . Based on results since the 1998 Bundestag election the article investigates which of several indicators proves best to predict the constituency-winner in Germany . Empirically, winning by a margin of 17 percentage points of the personal vote turns out to be a valid criterion . With regard to differences between the electoral performances of parties represented in the Bundestag it becomes clear that party specific criteria are, however, more vulnerable in case of party system change . Especially the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains an unknown factor for the forthcoming federal election . Due to the success in Landtag elections, it seems possible, that the AfD could win direct seats not only at the state level, but also at the federal level . For SPD candidates only four constituencies are safe wins . Predictions for the CDU/CSU are much better: numerous candidates can be certain to win the constituency seat .

Abstract

Under which conditions can a constituency be counted as safe? This question is especially important for parties and candidates, yet has found different answers among scholars . Based on results since the 1998 Bundestag election the article investigates which of several indicators proves best to predict the constituency-winner in Germany . Empirically, winning by a margin of 17 percentage points of the personal vote turns out to be a valid criterion . With regard to differences between the electoral performances of parties represented in the Bundestag it becomes clear that party specific criteria are, however, more vulnerable in case of party system change . Especially the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains an unknown factor for the forthcoming federal election . Due to the success in Landtag elections, it seems possible, that the AfD could win direct seats not only at the state level, but also at the federal level . For SPD candidates only four constituencies are safe wins . Predictions for the CDU/CSU are much better: numerous candidates can be certain to win the constituency seat .
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