This article presents the global movements, trends and actors driving EU-Turkey relations: namely, the global shift of power, the declining liberal international order and the rise of authoritarianism, populism, the new US foreign policy under Trump and Russia’s rise under Putin. It analyzes the impact of these drivers on the EU and Turkey respectively, and proposes the most likely scenario on the future of EU-Turkey relations under this constellation of drivers. It argues that the transformations at the global level have diminished the capacity of the EU to act as a “force for good” in international affairs which, coupled with Turkey’s will to emerge as a global actor, is likely to increase conflictual dynamics between both actors.
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