@article{2015:zerback:alles_eine,
title = {Alles eine Frage der Umfragen? Ursachen von Koalitionserwartungen im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013},
year = {2015},
note = {In order to investigate how five possible coalitions were evaluated by
the mass media and how citizens formed their coalition expectations a
content analysis and a telephone survey were conducted during the
campaigning of the 2013 German national election. The media favored
the coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD and also depicted it as the most
likely election outcome. The same applied to the interviewees. Their
coalition expectations were influenced by soft as well as hard
indicators of public opinion: Perceived media slant, opinions in their
social environment and within the broader population served as cues to
the perceived likelihood of possible coalitions. Remembered poll
results, however, as well as expectations regarding the likelihood of
the smaller coalition partner to pass the election threshold were only
relevant for particular scenarios, e.g. if the smaller party (i.e. the
FDP) was close to the five-percent-threshold or if the summed poll
share of the whole coalition was close to not being sufficient for
forming a government. [ZParl, vol. 46 (2015), no. 4, pp. 730 – 745]},
journal = {ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen},
pages = {730--745},
author = {Zerback, Thomas and Reinemann, Carsten},
volume = {46},
number = {4}
}