84
Cumulated fiscal effects of tax reforms increased strongly in 1974 (driven by the
real estate, the real estate acquisition and the net wealth tax). In 1997 cumulated
reform effects of real estate and real estate acquisition tax were pushed up strongly
by rate increases, while the abolishment of the net wealth tax had a negative effect
(see the lower part of Figure 38).
If we link cumulated reform effects and revenue developments, we find that the
reform of standard values in 1974 stopped the downward trend in real estate taxes.
Furthermore, revenues of real estate and real estate acquisition taxes increased
strongly after the 1996/1997 reform. This led to overall stable property tax revenues
despite the abolishment of the net wealth tax.
Overall the share of tax revenues of the property taxes over all tax revenues has
been very stable since the early 1970s not at least because of very low reform activities.
2.6 Summary
What are the most important results from our analyses of reform patterns by kind of
tax? First, we found that the general patterns of tax reforms differ strongly by kind
of tax (see Figure 39).
We found frequent and important reforms in wage and income taxes. Here tax reductions dominated and the fiscal effects of tax burden reductions were twice as
high as the fiscal effects of tax burden increases. In business taxes, we observed
barely any fiscally important changes via the corporate profit tax and the local trade
tax until the mid-1970s. For the whole period covered we observed that almost all
reforms in corporate profit and local trade taxation reduced the tax burden of businesses. In consumption taxes (VAT, mineral oil and tobacco taxes), we saw very
frequent changes with large fiscal effects. We found that almost all tax reforms in
these taxes led to increases in tax revenues. Property taxes were largely characterized by inactivity of tax policy.
With respect to the detailed analyses of reforms in the different taxes, we found
that the tax reforms with the most important fiscal effects were changes of the tariff
schedule and of tax rates. This was especially true for the consumption taxes, but
held as well in wage and income and the corporate profit taxes.
The link in between cumulated tax reforms and revenue developments differed
strongly by kind of tax. In the wage and income tax, cumulated reform effects were
able to contribute to our understanding of the overall trend in revenues, but not of
the divergent development of the different components of the wage and income tax
(see part IV.2.1). In business taxes, some major reforms were reflected in the revenue development, but overall the link in between reforms and revenue developments
was only weak. In the VAT, we were able to directly link rate changes and revenue
developments. In mineral oil and tobacco taxes we saw some direct links in between
tax reforms and revenue developments, but overall price and sales volume changes
85
dominated the revenue pattern. In the property taxes changes in revenue were very
limited, not at least as a result of low reform activities.
REFORM PATTERNS BY KIND OF TAX
-2,00%
-1,50%
-1,00%
-0,50%
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
REDUCTIONS
INCREASES
WAGE AND INCOME TAX REFORMS
Based on: Federal ministry of finance; annual reports, 1964-2004.
-2,00%
-1,50%
-1,00%
-0,50%
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
REDUCTIONS
INCREASES
I
Based on: Federal ministry of finance; annual reports, 1964-2004.
PROPERTY TAX REFORMS
-0,02%
0,00%
0,02%
0,04%
0,06%
0,08%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
INHERITANCE TAX
-0,10%
-0,05%
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
REAL ESTATE ACQUISITION TAXES
-0,30%
-0,20%
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
NET WEALTH TAX
Own calculations based on : Federal Ministry of Finance (2004)/Tax laws.Reforms by date of implementation.
-0,02%
0,00%
0,02%
0,04%
0,06%
0,08%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
I E IT E T X
-0,10%
-0,05%
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
E L EST TE ISITI T XES
-0,30%
-0,20%
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5
INCR
RED
ET E LT T X
Own calculations based on : Federal Ministry of Finance (2004)/Tax laws.Reforms by date of implementation.
CONSUMPTION TAX REFORMS
Based on: Federal ministry of finance; annual reports, 1964-2004.
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
RED
INCR
MINERAL OIL TAX
-0,05%
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
0,25%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
RED
INCR
TOBACCO TAX
-0,20%
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
Reductions
Increases
VAT
I
Based on: Federal ministry of finance; annual reports, 1964-2004.
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
RED
INCR
I L IL T
-0,05%
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
0,15%
0,20%
0,25%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
RED
INCR
T T
-0,20%
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
EF
F 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 2 4
Reductions
Increases
T
-0,60%
-0,50%
-0,40%
-0,30%
-0,20%
-0,10%
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
INCR/GDP
RED/GDP
BUSINESS TAX REFORMS
Based on: Federal ministry of finance; annual reports, 1964-2004.
CORPORATE PROFIT TAX
-0,25%
-0,20%
-0,15%
-0,10%
-0,05%
0,00%
0,05%
0,10%
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
INCR/GDP
RED/GDP
LOCAL TRADE TAX
Figure 39: Reform patterns in income, business, consumption and property taxes
3 Excursus: Macroeconomic development in Germany 1950-2005
As background for our analysis of revenue developments (in part III and IV) and tax
policy (in part V), we shortly review some stylized facts on macroeconomic development in the Federal Republic of Germany from 1950 to 2005. We focus on real
growth, inflation, unemployment and the development of factor incomes and abstract largely from international developments.151
We can group the macroeconomic development of the German economy after
World War Two into three major periods152 (see Figure 40): the first period from
1950 to 1973, the second from 1974 till 1990 and finally the third period from 1990
onwards.
151 More extensive discussions can be found e.g. in Giersch et al. (1994).
152 For a different classification see e.g. Muscheid (1986), Giersch et al. (1994) or Ehrlicher
(1994).
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References
Zusammenfassung
Was bestimmt die Steuerpolitik? Welche Ziele verfolgen die Bundesregierungen bei Steuerreformen? Haben Steuererhöhungen und Steuersenkungen einen Einfluss auf die Wahlergebnisse? Auf der Basis eines neuen Datensatzes zu den fiskalischen Effekten von Steuerreformen im Zeitraum von 1964 bis 2004 zeigt das Werk Muster der Steuerpolitik auf und testet zentrale ökonomische Hypothesen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass normative ökonomische Ansätze kaum einen Erklärungsbeitrag für die zu beobachtende Steuerpolitik leisten können.
Ausgehend von wichtigen polit-ökonomischen Theorien zeigt der Autor, dass die Mehrheitskonstellationen im Bundesrat einen wichtigen Einfluss auf die Steuerpolitik haben, allerdings genau umgekehrt wie von der Blockade-Hypothese behauptet: Steuerreformen sind gemessen an ihren Fiskaleffekten bei gegenläufigen Mehrheiten in Bundestag und Bundesrat häufiger und umfangreicher. Des Weiteren gibt es keine Hinweise darauf, dass die parteipolitische Zusammensetzung der Bundesregierung einen wichtigen Einfluss auf Steuerreformen hat. Wahltaktische Terminierungen von Steuerreformen spielen aber sehr wohl eine wichtige Rolle. Eine Auswertung des Zusammenhangs von Steuerreformen und Wahlergebnissen zeigt allerdings, dass die Versuche der Bundesregierungen, ihre Wiederwahlwahrscheinlichkeit durch Steuersenkungen kurz vor der Wahl zu erhöhen, wenig erfolgreich sind: Nicht nur die Jahre unmittelbar vor den Wahlterminen, sondern die Steuerpolitik in der gesamten Legislaturperiode hat einen Einfluss auf die Bundestagswahlergebnisse der regierenden Parteien.