Mitgliederparteien – Niedergang ohne Ende?

Elmar Wiesendahl; Benjamin Höhne; Malte Cordes

doi:10.5771/0340-1758-2018-2-304

Contents
- Chapter Expand | CollapseAuthorsPage
- I–IV Titelei/Inhaltsverzeichnis I–IV
- 205–206 EDITORIAL Suzanne S. Schüttemeyer Suzanne S. Schüttemeyer 205–206
- 207–371 DOKUMENTATION UND ANALYSEN 207–371
  - 207–222 Deutscher Bundestag 1998 bis 2017/18: Parlaments- und Wahlstatistik für die 14 . bis beginnende 19 . Wahlperiode Michael F. Feldkamp Michael F. Feldkamp 207–222
  - 223–242 Die Bundestagswahl 2017 im Spiegel der repräsentativen Wahlstatistik Eckhard Jesse Eckhard Jesse 223–242
  - 243–264 Ein komplexes Gebilde. Eine sozio-ökonomische Analyse des Ergebnisses der AfD bei der Bundestagswahl 2017 Knut Bergmann, Matthias Diermeier, Judith Niehues Knut Bergmann, Matthias Diermeier, Judith Niehues 243–264
  - 265–285 Parteienwettbewerb und Koalitionsbildung in Deutschland 2017/18: Eine Analyse der Wahlprogramme Simon Jakobs, Uwe Jun Simon Jakobs, Uwe Jun 265–285
  - 286–303 Die Entwicklung des deutschen Parteiensystems. Zur Bedeutung kurzfristiger Faktoren im Jahrzehnt des europäischen Wandels Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 286–303
  - 304–324 Mitgliederparteien – Niedergang ohne Ende? Elmar Wiesendahl, Benjamin Höhne, Malte Cordes Elmar Wiesendahl, Benjamin Höhne, Malte Cordes 304–324
  - 325–345 Freie Wähler zwischen Partei und Wählergemeinschaft. Mitglieder, Identität und Organisation Jens Walther, Michael Angenendt Jens Walther, Michael Angenendt 325–345
  - 346–371 Parteimitgliedschaften im Jahre 2017 Oskar Niedermayer Oskar Niedermayer 346–371
- 372–436 AUFSÄTZE 372–436
  - 372–406 Die Bundestagswahl 2017: GroKo IV – ohne Alternative für Deutschland Richard Hilmer, Jérémie Gagné Richard Hilmer, Jérémie Gagné 372–406
  - 407–436 Regierungsbildung „wider Willen“ – der mühsame Weg zur Koalition nach der Bundestagswahl 2017 Sven T. Siefken Sven T. Siefken 407–436
- 437–445 REZENSIONEN 437–445
- 446–446 MITTEILUNG 446–446
- 447–450 ABSTRACTS 447–450
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ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen , page 304 - 324

Mitgliederparteien – Niedergang ohne Ende?

Autoren

Elmar Wiesendahl Benjamin Höhne Malte Cordes

DOI
- doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2018-2-304
- ISSN: 0340-1758
- ISSN online: 0340-1758
Zusammenfassung

Declining numbers of party members in Europe have led to the presumption that over time parties will disappear as membership organizations . This view is opposed by the normalization thesis, which predicts that membership parties will survive albeit on low levels . But how likely is it that they will either disappear or normalize their membership numbers? Membership developments are subject to a business cycle and in Germany it reached its climax between the mid-1970s up until shortly after the German reunification in the early 1990s . Since then there has been a steady decline in membership, mainly due to a lack of entries, an increase of resignations and a steadily growing cohort of older party members passing away . According to the normalization thesis, membership numbers are expected to continue to decline following the extraordinary inflow of members in the mid-1970s and early 1990s . In the longer term it is expected that those numbers will stabilize . By means of a time series analysis their development is estimated up to 2030 . The results show that more members will join than leave . When this phase - in which a large share of resignations is owed to members passing away - subsides, the numbers of entries and exits are likely to align .

Abstract

Declining numbers of party members in Europe have led to the presumption that over time parties will disappear as membership organizations . This view is opposed by the normalization thesis, which predicts that membership parties will survive albeit on low levels . But how likely is it that they will either disappear or normalize their membership numbers? Membership developments are subject to a business cycle and in Germany it reached its climax between the mid-1970s up until shortly after the German reunification in the early 1990s . Since then there has been a steady decline in membership, mainly due to a lack of entries, an increase of resignations and a steadily growing cohort of older party members passing away . According to the normalization thesis, membership numbers are expected to continue to decline following the extraordinary inflow of members in the mid-1970s and early 1990s . In the longer term it is expected that those numbers will stabilize . By means of a time series analysis their development is estimated up to 2030 . The results show that more members will join than leave . When this phase - in which a large share of resignations is owed to members passing away - subsides, the numbers of entries and exits are likely to align .
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